Different Act, Same Plot
The Falcons ended the 2015-2016 regular season with easily identifiable and solvable problems to fix before the 2016-2017 regular season. They had 252 days to fix an absent pass rush, an unsuccessful red zone offense and predictable play calling. They had an NFL free agency period and NFL Draft to find the talent and fill the gaps. After Sunday's third straight loss to the Buccaneers, it looks like nothing has changed. I would love to hear from somebody who honestly thinks this team has improved from last year, because so far it looks like a new act with some new characters that results in the same plot. The 2016-2017 season has all the makings for a bad reality TV show in it's 4th season on cable television.
The Pass Rush:
Since 2012 the Falcons have an embarrassingly low number of sacks, and it's significantly lower than every other team in the NFL. The front office drafted Vic Beasley out of Clemson last year as a undersized speed rusher off the edge (comparable to a guy like Dwight Freeney), but then decided to move him to outside linebacker. For a team desperate for pass rush, this move seems comparable to the Carolina Panthers needing a quarterback after the 2010 season and drafting Cam Newton in the 2011 draft, but deciding that he's better served as a tight end. By moving Vic Beasley to linebacker you're either conceding that he wasn't worth the 8th overall pick or you have better talent than him at the defensive end position. It doesn't make sense, because nobody on the Falcons defensive front got to Jameis Winston on Sunday. Speaking of that guy Dwight Freeney, who you signed to be your passing situation specialist, it was as though he didn't even dress out for the game Sunday.
Behind the defensive line, the linebacking core was also absent. The Falcons drafted two linebackers labeled as 'steals' and perfect for the Dan Quinn system, Deoin Jones and DeVondre Campbell. All preseason you heard about the development and growth form both linebackers, but the Falcons decided to rotate the young talent out for players with ceilings, Sean Witherspoon and Paul Worrilow. We know what those guys can do because we've seen them do the same things over the last 4 years - giving up big plays to the tight end and failing to contribute to the pass rush.
What happens when defenses can't get to the quarterback? It sets up the opposing quarterback to relax in the pocket and take shots down the field. Example: Jameis Winston threw for 281 yards on 23 out of 33 attempts, with a 30-yard touchdown over the linebackers to the tight end and a 45-yard touchdown to Mike Evans over the 2nd cornerback and 2nd free safety. Even if the Falcons had hurried or hit Winston it would have altered his comfort, but they couldn't even get close to Winston - and it's not because the Bucs have a superior offensive line.
Red Zone Offense:
Stop me if you've heard this before - the Falcons offense moved down the field but once they got inside the red zone, it looks like they forgot how to play football and self destructed. Pre-snap penalties and questionable play calling ended drives that could have resulted in touchdowns, which could have put the Falcons ahead and could have won them the game. Coulda, woulda, shoulda is the theme of the Falcons offense. After almost getting to the Super Bowl in 2012, the Falcons offense has been stagnant. Julio gets his fantasy numbers when he's healthy and can make big plays down the field, but when the field is shortened the offense plays scared and cautious.
A large part of the offense's problem is the system. The zone offense can be a very successful system with the right quarterback. Matt Ryan is not a zone offense quarterback. He's a prototypical pro offense quarterback. He can be effective passer in the west coast offense, an effective passer in a wide open shotgun reliant system, but he cannot be an effective passer in a system that relies on him moving out of the pocket.
It is frustrating to see Dan Quinn leave the fate of his job as an NFL head coach in the hands of his offensive coordinator. If he kept the same system that made the Falcons a top tier offense, he could have relied on them while he rebuilt the defense. Instead, he has chosen a system that obviously doesn't work - they ranked 29th in points last year with weapons like Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman and Roddy White. Mind boggling. The worst part about an offense that can't score and struggles with turnovers, is that the defense doesn't have the ability to save them from mistakes.
Another disturbing thought about the week one loss is that it was a must win. You might be thinking it's delusional to label a week one matchup as a "must win," but it was a division opponent at home coached by your former head coach and offensive coordinator that has now beaten you 3 games in a row.
On top of that, looking ahead at the future schedule, five out of the next six weeks are on the road against the Saints on MNF, NFC and AFC West teams (two of the best two divisions in football) and your home game is against the Carolina Panthers. Now that the Birds lost to the Bucs at home, an 0-6 start to this season is a very real possibility.
From a 5-0 start last year, to a 3-8 finish, and a possible 0-6 start this year... looks like some Falcons decision makers could be facing the chopping block if improvements aren't made soon.