Falcons @ Saints for MNF: Avoid the Buzzsaw
The Atlanta Falcons will travel to New Orleans on Monday night to face the New Orleans Saints in a celebration of the Mercedes-Benz SuperDome reopening for the first game after Hurricane Katrina.
Ten years ago, the Falcons walked into a buzzsaw against the Saints as New Orleans celebrated the homecoming that propelled the city back to normalcy following the natural disaster.
In 2006, the Michael Vick-led Falcons didn't stand a chance to prevent the raucous SuperDome crowd from playing a factor in the game, but the noise and energy in the building were simply too much for any opponent. It was walking into a buzzsaw.
On his radio show Monday morning, Dan Patrick reminisced on the game ten years ago, saying "I've never been in a stadium louder than that. Before the game, I wondered if the Saints would be able to play a football game, but I soon started wondering if the Falcons would be able to play a football."
Last year, on a Thursday night primetime contest in New Orleans, the Saints unveiled a statue of the famous Steve Gleason blocking the punt against the Falcons. The energy the Saints rode from that dedication was too much to handle. They let the Saints get comfortable and the Saints lit us up, we walked into the buzzsaw.
The Falcons need to be ready for a re-energized SuperDome and prepare for the energy that the Saints will carry onto the field. The Saints are 0-3, but it's because of their defense and not their offense. Brees & Company are still as explosive and efficient with the ball as they've ever been. To help defend the pass, the Falcons will get back their injured First Round pick, safety Keanu Neal - this will be Neal's first regular season game.
In 21 games against the Falcons, Drew Brees has averaged a 95.9 Passer Rating, which is on par with his career average of 96. Matt Ryan currently leads the NFL in passer rating (121.4) this season, far above his career 91.3. Against the Saints though, Ryan has played equal to his New Orleans competitor with a 96 Passer Rating. Unfortunately for Ryan and his Falcons though, this hasn't translated to the win-loss column, Brees owning a 15-5 record against the Birds since 2006 and Ryan with a dismal 5-10 record against the Saints since 2008.
Ryan looks more comfortable this year in Shanahan's offense so far, getting his number against the Bucs in a home loss and lighting up the Raiders offense in a week two win on the west coast. The Saints have also played the Raiders, putting up numbers that should have won a game, but their defense continues to be non-existent. The Falcons defense still struggles at times, but they seem to be improving from last year - hopefully the return of Keanu Neal adds physicality and athleticism that will help defend the tight end and help in the rush defense.
To beat the Saints, the Falcons' pass rush will need to wake up from the coma it has been in for the last handful of seasons. If the Falcons can get after Brees and make the Saints uncomfortable, it will take the crowd out of the game. In order to win, the Falcons need to take the energy out of the building. The Saints faithful feed off the points the offense can put up, so attacking Brees before he gets rolling is the key to this game.
If the pass rush isn't there, both offenses will likely settle into an aerial shootout. In the event of a shootout breaking out, the biggest factor in the game will be the turnover battle or special teams. Last week, Eric Weems had a great punt return wiped out by a penalty, and the defense has shown the ability to turn the ball over, but making it happen more often will be vital to beating the Saints.
My prediction: Falcons edge the Saints 38-35 if there's no pass rush. If there is a pass rush, the Falcons smother the Saints 38-17 because the Saints have no answer to Julio Jones & Mohammed Sanu.