MLB Wild Card Preview
Postseason baseball is finally right around the corner. Last night was a pretty dramatic night in baseball, so today should be good time to catch up on all the impending drama in the next two months. While more people will be concerned with college and professional football – possibly even the Ryder Cup – playoffs are PLAYOFFS. There will be drama, there will be upsets and there stands a good chance for history to be made.
One of the best things about playoff baseball is the Wild Card game (unless you happen to be a Braves fan in 2012 when the professional umpires didn't comprehend where the infield ends and outfield begins). Winner take all baseball was a great move by former Commissioner Bud Selig, and this year's AL & NL match ups are bound to be exciting.
AMERICAN LEAGUE WILD CARD: The chase for the final Wild Card spot was wildly entertaining in the American League. In the final week of the season there were four teams within four games of the #2 spot with four days left in the season – Tigers, Mariners, Astros and Yankees all chasing the Orioles and Blue Jays. The Yankees and Astros have been eliminated during the week, Seattle had a chance but time ran out on their playoff push and the Tigers need a miracle and some help to make it to October.
The Orioles jumped out to an incredible start this season smashing the raw hide cover off the baseball, but cooled off and then for a while it looked like they weren’t going to make it in October – only having a 34 percent chance of making the playoffs as late as September 22nd according to MLB.com’s Postseason Projections. They made a late season charge to keep their hopes alive and are almost a lock to make the Wild Card game against the Blue Jays.
The Orioles will most likely have to cross northern border to play the Blue Jays for the Wild Card game, which is probably the most intriguing matchup of all possible outcomes. Expect this game to get chippy since they’re both AL East rivals that have played against each other enough times this summer to annoy each other – even playing each other this past Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. If there’s not a homerun in this game it would be out of character, and whichever team fails to put one over the fence is likely to lose. Baltimore leads the league in four-baggers (245), sponging off Mark Trumbo’s career year. Toronto lands second in homeruns by 26 (219) with a lethal lineup of bat-flipping potential.
Prediction for Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: While I like the Orioles more and relied on Mark Trumbo all season in fantasy baseball, I also had the former MVP Josh Donaldson on my fantasy squad and I’m leaning toward picking the Blue Jays. The game will probably be played in Toronto so it’ll be difficult to imagine the Blue Jays not riding the wave of momentum that the raucous SkyDome crowd can create. The only thing that can hold the Blue Jays back is letting their emotions take over the game. The Jays seem to clear the benches every other night, so if you’re looking for a prop bet to drop a hammer on you should look for anything that involves the Blue Jays and the benches clearing.
NATIONAL LEAGUE WILD CARD:
The final push for the playoffs has looked like a race that nobody wants to win. The final week of the season has weeded out three teams fighting for two spots – the San Francisco Giants, New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals.
With the Cardinals seemingly inevitable resilience to always participate in postseason baseball, it was assumed they would again be playing October baseball – but this season was on pace to be a letdown, having a season low 28 percent chance of making the playoffs on September 16th.
The Giants are another team you would assume is in the hunt for a World Series trophy – considering it’s an even numbered year, the trophy might as well have already etched their name on it. For a brief moment in late April, the Giants lingered at a 45 percent chance of making the postseason, but maintained above 65 percent since. Their bullpen issues (most blown saves in a single season) have cost them the lead in the NL West to the Dodgers, and it could cost them a postseason opportunity.
The Mets were the biggest long shot in all of baseball to fight for a Wild Card spot, just one month ago they were lingering at a 7 percent shot to make the playoffs. Without Matt Harvey, Steven Matz and Jacob DeGrom it seemed impossible to make a run at the pennant, but they have hitched their wagon to the offense and climbed to a 1.5 game lead in the Wild Card with four days left in the season and have a 99% chance of making the playoffs.
Predictions for three matchups: All three teams have one thing in common – each manager can write in a powerful ace on the lineup card that can win in the postseason and are built to pitch in a winner-take-all one game series like the Wild Card. The Mets have Noah Syndergaard, the Giants Madison Bumgardner and the Cardinals Adam Wainwright. The most likely outcome is Thor vs. Bumgardner – if that’s the case, it’s going to be hard to pick against the Giants in an even numbered year. If the Cardinals can make a miracle happen and play the Mets, that’s a matchup I like the Mets to win. I think the most interesting matchup would have been the Cardinals versus the Giants – experienced managers on both sides, big time aces and solid lineups. Unfortunately, the Cardinals need to win out against the Reds and Pirates with the Phillies sweeping the Mets.