Reactions to the Braves offseason moves
I had planned on posting this closer to Opening Day, but with the Braves making a big move today I figured it would be a good time to catch up on all of the moves before they report to Spring Training next month.
11/10/16 – Braves sign R.A. Dickey
I’ve already blogged about this, click this link.
11/17/16 – Braves sign Bartolo Colon
This is a move that I’ve wanted for quite some time. Bartolo is not only a reliable veteran arm that can deliver 200+ innings with ease (even at his age), but because he can mentor a guy like Matt Wisler or Aaron Blair who struggled with locations and relying on the fastball. Colon only throws fastballs, roughly 90% of his pitches, and it’s not because he throws 95-100 mph, it’s because he paints the corners with location and precision at 86-92 mph.
His job this year will be to eat innings when the young pitchers struggle, and more so than some other pitchers in the rotation he can sell seats. People will enjoy how he pitches, but they’ll pay for tickets to watch him hit:
11/18/16 – Tuffy Gosewisch claimed off waivers from Diamondbacks
Gosewisch is a 33-year-old catcher with only four years’ experience at the Major League level with a .199 career batting average. I don’t think he’ll make the major league roster after Spring Training (Flowers and Recker are the favorites, unless Matt Wieters is signed), he’s probably going to be the Gwinnett catcher in case of emergency in Atlanta. Catcher is undoubtedly the biggest question mark with the Braves right now, and there is a significant gap between young catchers that aren’t ready for double- and triple-A and the average veterans on the 25-man roster.
11/28/16 – Braves trade RHP Max Povse and RHP Rob Whalen to Seattle Mariners for Player to Be Named Later (LHP Tyler Pike on 12/9/16) and RF Alex Jackson
Giving up Max Povse was a big loss for Atlanta, as the 6-foot-8 prospect churns out strikeouts and groundballs efficiently and is most likely major-league-ready this season. Whalen was also a good prospect, reminiscent of a bigger and stronger Kris Medlen, but injuries from fatigue have cost the prospect an opportunity to shine at the major league level.
Alex Jackson, the prospect that the Braves received in return, is a former 6th overall draft pick in the 2014 draft from California. He set the record for homeruns in high school, and scouts drooled over his ability at the plate making him a highly sought after prospect in 2014. Unfortunately, his development derailed in recent seasons. This is from his Baseball America scouting report:
“Jackson has 223 strikeouts in 190 career games because of an inefficient bat path, which has raised doubts he’ll ever make enough contact to tap into his plus raw power. He still hits the occasional towering home run, but evaluators are increasingly beginning to grade Jackson a below-average hitter at best. The Mariners sent Jackson to extended spring training to begin 2016, the first time this millennium a healthy, non-suspended first-round infielder or outfielder did not begin his second full season assigned to a team. He finally responded to coaching after the move and was bumped to low Class A Clinton in mid-May, but even with improvement in his bat path still struck out in 27 percent of his plate appearances.”
Jackson played catcher in high school before being moved to the outfield, if the Braves plan on moving him to catcher and fix his swing, he will be the catcher of the future for the Braves.
11/30/16 – Braves sign 1B Sean Rodriguez
Not that big of a signing, he’s likely to be a pinch hitter most nights, or a guy that can play first base to give Freddie Freeman an occasional night off. He’s not a make-or-break signing and he’s easily exposable during or after the season if a prospect rises through the system.
12/1/16 – St. Louis Cardinals traded LHP Jaime Garcia to Atlanta Braves for RHP Chris Ellis, RHP John Gant and 2B Luke Dykstra.
Chris Ellis was a pitching prospect that mowed through double-A batters, but in triple-A he was rocked – he didn’t have an extremely high ceiling and at most he would have been a middle reliever. If his name sounds familiar it’s because he was in the Sean Newcomb for Andrelton Simmons trade with the Angels.
John Gant had a good number of major league appearances this season, at times he was an effective pitcher, and at others he didn’t look ready. This is also his second time getting dealt, as he was a piece in the Kelly Johnson trade two-years ago.
Luke Dykstra, son of former All-Star Lenny Dykstra, was a Rome Brave in the minors with a formidable batting average last season (.304) but lacked power. His ceiling was a bench infielder and pinch hitter for Atlanta, and at 21 years of age in Single-A, it’s time to clear his roster spot for a younger infielder.
None of these prospects were ranked in our top-15 prospects
Now for the guy we got, Jaime Garcia is solid rotation guy from St. Louis, likely slotting in behind Julio Teheran and ahead of Mike Foltynewicz. Garcia is coming off his worst season as a major league starter and the label on the lefty has been ‘injury-plagued.’ When he’s healthy he is reliable with a good strikeout pitches, but most importantly, if he’s healthy he’s a lefty that breaks up the righty-dominant rotation. He’s probably another one-and-done player that the Braves added this offseason, with his contract expiring after the season.
From the AJC: “Garcia, 30, was 10-13 with a career-worst 4.67 ERA in 32 games (30 starts) in 2016 and had 157 strikeouts with 50 walks and a career-high 26 home runs allowed in 171 2/3 innings. It was the first time the injury-plagued lefty pitched in more than 20 games since 2011.”
12/8/16 – Atlanta Braves traded LHP Brady Feigl and RHP Tyrell Jenkins to Texas Rangers for RHP Luke Jackson.
I don’t know much about Feigl, as he was only a 26-year-old minor league player with no major league experience, but I do know Tyrell Jenkins. Jenkins was a piece from the Cardinals in the Shelby Miller/Jayson Heyward trade, and had made his way to the major league level this past season. Jenkins showed an ability to be a middle reliever, but because the Braves’ staff are righty-dominant, he became expendable. Add expendability with an inability to strike out batters and command a strike zone, and that’s the recipe for an organization to move on.
In return, the Braves picked up another right-handed pitcher from Texas Luke Jackson. Jackson is a mystifying prospect with a 6’2 frame and a fastball that dabbles with 100 mph and, at times, dances with movement. He’s a fastball/curveball pitcher, but he’s been rocked at the major league level in 11 games because of location. His upside is greater than Jenkins and possibly greater than most pitchers in the system, but he’s entirely potential without consistent results. If the Braves can channel his ability to effective levels than he will be an anchor in the bullpen or at the end of the rotation.
1/11/17 – Atlanta Braves trade OF Mallex Smith and RP Shae Simmons to Seattle Mariners for LHPs Luiz Gohara and Thomas Burrows
This trade at first glance didn’t make much sense, as Mallex Smith is a speedy swiss-army knife outfielder and Shae Simmons seemed to have recovered from Tommy John surgery well enough to contribute out of the bullpen this season. But Atlanta seems to be committed to the Inciarte-Kemp-Markakis outfield this season and there didn’t seem to be enough room for youngster. Smith struggled in the offseason after recovering from his broken thumb, even getting cut from his Mexican winter league team, which usually never happens to major league prospects.
Simmons also grappled with shoulder and foreman stiffness in his initial rehab assignments which shut him down for weeks at a time. Tommy John ended up costing Simmons a combined two years of recovery. I know I sound like a broken record with the right-handed pitching, but when you return two left-handed pitchers in the deal that had to of been why Simmons was traded.
As for the guys we got, here’s there Baseball America scouting reports:
Gohara signed with the Mariners for $800,000 as a 16-year-old in 2012 out of Brazil, but substandard work ethic and conditioning prevented him from progressing. Sent to extended spring training for the fourth straight season in 2016, Gohara finally got the message and dropped 30 pounds, resulting in an uptick in his stuff across the board and his durability. His fastball now sits 94-97 mph and touched 100 in the Arizona Fall League, while his slider is a swing-and-miss offering that was rated the best in the Mariners organization. It sits 84-87 and scrapes 90. His changeup is a work in progress but he has made strides in keeping the same arm speed, helping it become a possibly fringe-average to average pitch in time. His control also took a leap forward this year with his improved fitness allowing him to better repeat his delivery and arm slot. Gohara has pitched more than six innings only once in 48 career starts. His durability, changeup development and continued devotion to his fitness will determine if he reaches his ceiling as a hard-throwing mid-rotation starter. He is likely to start at high Class A in 2017.
Burrows became Alabama’s all-time saves leader in the spring and the Mariners drafted him in the fourth round, No. 117 overall, last June. Burrows’ fastball sat 93-94 mph at Alabama but backed up to the high-80s in his pro debut, which Mariners officials said was the result of fatigue. Still, Burrows flashed a hard slurve and changeup that both got swings and misses and allowed him to excel in his pro debut nonetheless. The quality of his changeup allows him to handle right-handed batters as well as lefties, giving him the upside of a valuable late-inning reliever who is more than just a matchup guy. He will likely begin at low Class A Rome in 2017.