NFL Divisional Round Breakdown

All four divisional round matchups are rematches of regular season matchups. In just about every rematch, the teams that lost are now different opponents and the former winners will have their hands full winning again.

Seahawks @ Falcons (-4.5/5) – 4:25 p.m. on FOX

This rematch is probably the most entertaining game because it’s the league’s best offense against one of the league’s best defenses. The Seahawks are playoff regulars with success in the past, while the Falcons are occasional playoff participants for a round or two.

When they met earlier this season in Week 6, the Falcons out-maneuvered the Seahawks on multiple occasions, using Dan Quinn’s experience as the Seahawks defensive coordinator to scheme plays that he had trouble defending while in Seattle. At one point the Falcons used routes and packages to expose blown coverages on 36- and 46-yard wide open touchdown passes. It’s what caused Richard Sherman to go ballistic on the sideline, yelling at teammates. The 21-point 3rd quarter gave the Falcons a lead, but turnovers and dropped passes opened the door for Seattle to steal a win in the 4th.

The Falcons certainly outplayed the Seahawks and exposed weaknesses in their Cover 3 scheme, but had the referees correctly flagged Richard Sherman on a clear pass interference with two minutes left in the fourth the game could have gone a different way. But they didn’t, which might work out in the Falcons favor because they have the revenge factor and for Seattle, it’s difficult to beat a team twice.

I’m taking the Falcons to cover and win because their offense is the most balanced in the league and they scheme ways to expose defensive schemes – missing Earl Thomas will cost Seattle. As far Atlanta’s defense, they’ve grown tremendously since Week 6 and Seattle’s offensive line isn’t good enough to keep Beasley and Freeney off Russel Wilson’s back.

Texans @ Patriots (-15.5) – 8:15 p.m. on CBS

The headline in this game is that it is the largest postseason spread in recent NFL history. Favored by more than two touchdowns, Tom Brady’s revenge tour is finally on the playoff stage. When these teams met earlier in the season, the Patriots were down to their rookie third-string quarterback, Jacoby Brissett, and they still managed to smoke the Texans 27-0 on Thursday night football.

Without Brady, the Patriots relied on the run game to dismantle Houston. Blount rushed 24 times for 105 yards and a pair of touchdowns, and Brissett added 8 rushes for 48 yards of his own – including a 27-yard touchdown. Since then, the Texans offense has not improved (but looked better against one of the worst defenses last week), and the defense has become the league’s best.

But if you had to pick one quarterback to pick apart one of the league’s best defenses, it would be Tom Brady. The Patriots offense is third best in the league behind Atlanta and New Orleans, and they are versatile with a punishing run game and receivers that can dupe defenses all over the field.

It’s tough to pick the Patriots to cover the spread, because it’s so large and the Texans defense can defend well and the offense showed signs of life. I think that most people aren’t aware that this Patriots defense is not the usual defense it has been during this dynasty. Luckily for New England, the Texans offense isn’t reliable enough to beat them, so I’m inclined to take the 15.5 point spread in this matchup.

Steelers @ Chiefs (-1.5) – 1:05 p.m. on NBC

This rematch, much like the Texans/Pats game was a blowout in favor of the home team. But this time around, the loser of the first matchup is now the host to the winner. When the Steelers manhandled the Chiefs in Week 4, the Steelers jumped out to a 22-0 lead in the first quarter and the Chiefs were unable to respond.

That loss was considered an anomaly on Kansas City’s season as they’ve since solidified a run game, utilized Tyreke Hill as an explosive weapon and returned an elite pass rusher with Justin Houston. For the most part, the Chiefs have been one of the best teams and this week’s game will not result in a 43-14 score.

The Steelers might be the hottest team in the league right now with the ‘Killer Bs’ working in sync. Bell and Brown are threats to score from just about anywhere on the field and Ben Roethlisberger, if healthy, is able to distribute the ball to his weapons as good as anyone. It’s hard to pick against Pittsburgh with the way they’ve been playing. Their defense shows up in crunch time, as one of the best red zone defenses this season, but keeping up with Tyreke Hill is a very tall task.

The Steelers have a better offense than Kansas City, but the Chiefs have a better defense than Pittsburgh. Because the Steelers have probably the league’s most versatile running back alongside the shifty Antonio Brown, they’ll keep the Chiefs on their toes and unable to unleash their pass rush. I’m picking the hot-handed Steelers to cover 1.5, and I also think they’ll edge the Chiefs for a win.

Packers @ Cowboys (-4.5) – 4:40 p.m. on FOX

It’s the classic matchup of NFL blue bloods. It’s another rematch from week 6, when the Cowboys handled everything the Packers had to throw at them. Ezekiel Elliot rushed for 157 yards and Dak Prescott threw for three touchdowns without Dez Bryant in the lineup. It was a coming out party for the rookies while it sent the Packers into a mid-season downward spiral.

Since their midseason spiral, the Packers have rebounded to be one of the most dangerous teams alongside the Steelers. Last week against the Giants, the Packers dismantled a solid Giants defense while lucking out on OBJ’s drops to advance. Aaron Rodgers had a microcosm game – struggling early, until he has to be perfect and slings the ball into tight windows for the win. Unfortunately, Rodgers likely lost his most reliable target, Jordy Nelson, to broken ribs. Missing this target is a big loss but not detrimental to the Packers Super Bowl chances.

The Cowboys game plan will revolve around the running game and keeping the Packers offense off the field. Dak Prescott has proven he can be relied on when needed to convert a third down, and if the Cowboys can keep the third down distance manageable they will take care of the Packers. Being at home will help the rookies adjust to the pressures of the playoffs. As long as the Cowboys control the time of possession they will most likely win this game.

Now, covering the 4.5 point spread might be a different story. There’s no doubt the Packers can score at will, and while Dallas’ defense is decent, when the Packers get the ball they should score on most of their possessions. I think this game will be close and the Cowboys will grind out the clock for the win, but only by two or three points.