Thoughts on Shanahan & the 49ers
Over the weekend it was reported that the 49ers have narrowed their coaching search down to Seahawks assistant head coach and OL coach Tom Cable, Patriots OC Josh McDaniels and Falcons OC Kyle Shanahan.
If we're looking at franchise history and prestige, there's no doubt the 49ers carry some weight in the league. But if we're looking into franchise stability and opportunity to win in the near future, then the Falcons carry as much weight - while the 49ers are more comparable to the Browns.
The 49ers just fired their third coach in three years. Their starting quarterback, who is under a rather large long-term contract, is one of the most disliked in the league and doesn't seem to have much respect in his own locker room. Their owner is having to answer questions from the media that are asking why he hasn't been fired.
The San Francisco media are the not the blood hungry hounds like New York - so if the docile-natured reporters are asking an owner why he shouldn't be fired and he's giving childish responses, the environment cannot be conducive to winning.
The 49ers have lost whatever recipe to success they had in the Montana-Walsh-DeBartolo years, and they don't seem to have any idea how to get it back.
Initial reports on Shanahan were that he wanted to find a gig that allowed him to bring his Dad into the front office with him. If that's the case, then the 49ers opening makes more sense because they lack a GM right now.
But hiring both of the Shanahans with the Washington debacle only four years in the rearview mirror is dicey and the 49ers can find themselves treading in some nepotism-filled waters if things go array.
Had there been a prop bet on Kyle getting the Denver job, I would've bet the house on it - Shanahan's first OC gig was under Kubiak in Houston and he was a coaching assistant while his Dad and Elway won Super Bowls in Denver.
Living in your dad's Lombardi Trophy-sized shadow in Denver would be difficult, and if he is dead set on bringing Mike into the Front that wouldn't have fit with Elway at the helm of their football operations.
My biggest question about this move has to be, what is there in San Francisco that interests Shanahan? Because there's not much.
They only have two or three players on defense from their previous championship window, and most are past their prime. On offense, they have an aging offensive line in front of an injury prone running back and a group of patch-work receivers.
Kaepernick does have an escapable contract if he's not part of the plan going forward, but there's not a free agent quarterback that changes your fortune immediately. Your best bet is to start with a blank canvas on a rookie quarterback through the draft or trade draft picks for one of the Eastern Illinois alums - Tony Romo and Jimmy Garoppolo.
If success is the end goal, then staying in Atlanta has to be the answer. Coaches are always looking for their next big opportunity, so becoming a head coach in the NFL is obviously the career goal. But if your Shanahan, your stock is only going to get higher for a better job next offseason. San Francisco hasn't shown patience in the past, and with the owner in a position of defending his job to the media, patience is not likely to be shown in the future.
If Shanahan does in fact move on, as the latest report this morning has him as the favorite, he will likely stay on the Atlanta staff however long the season lasts. As for next year, promoting one of Shanahan's assistants (if he doesn't bring the staff with him to SF) is likely. Keeping this offensive scheme has to be the priority, so going with an outside hire with a different playbook makes zero sense. Matt Ryan is experienced enough to keep this offense moving forward, even if the coordinator is unexperienced in the position.
EDITOR'S NOTE: It has most recently been reported by many that the 49ers will offer the job to Shanahan after the NFC Championship game, and are wiling to wait until the Falcons season ends. When offered, Shanahan is expected to take the job - which raises the next question, who on his staff will stay in Atlanta and leave with him to San Francisco?