NFC & AFC Conference Championship Weekend

Three football games left this season. THREE. It's a depressing realization, but all it means is that we need to cherish and milk whatever we have left. Lucky for the fans, these two games should be some of the best two games of the year. Here's the preview on the action this Sunday:

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS (-5.5), o/u 60.5

It's a rematch of game earlier in the year when the Packers had the game won, but the Falcons pulled a victory out of their sleeves to edge the Packers by one, 33-32. Since then, Rodgers has gravitated all the attention from NFL pundits while on his "Run the Table Streak," but the other quarterback in this matchup could be the hotter quarterback right now. ESPN, of all places, actually showed the likely-MVP's stats during the streak. LINK

While the FOX telecast will focus on the quarterback play in this game, the biggest matchup is going to be the young and inexperienced Falcons defense against Aaron Rodgers. In the first matchup, Rodgers had the most rushing yards all season (60), escaping from the pocket to burn the Falcons, mostly on third down. Rodgers also threw four touchdowns to four different receivers, while Ryan threw three to three different. It was a quiet day for Julio Jones, as they bracketed him for most of the game - but it was the coming-out party for Taylor Gabriel, as he was featured as a target alongside Sanu effectively.

Both teams were missing marquee players to injury - Randall Cobb and Ty Montgomery for GB and Tevin Coleman for the Falcons. This time, Jordy Nelson is unlikely to play for the Packers with broken ribs, while the Falcons look to have all their offensive weapons ready to go.

The matchup in Green Bay Offense vs. Falcons Defense to keep an eye on is Brian Poole in the slot against Randall Cobb and Jalen Collins on the outside against Davonte Adams. If the second-year corner and rookie nickel back can hold their own against the improvisation when Rodgers inevitably escapes the pocket to throw on the run. Keeping Rodgers in the pocket will help the defensive blocks the most, and lucky for the Falcons they have a bank of film to find out what they did wrong the first time.

The matchup in Atlanta Offense vs. Green Bay Defense will be whatever receiver the Falcons decide to feature against the Packers secondary. If they bracket Julio, Sanu and Gabriel will be featured, if they man up on every man equally, Jones will be running free all afternoon. Simply put, the Falcons offense will get theirs. Their defense has not shown as much ability to defend as the Falcons have, the Falcons can also ground and pound the rock inside and outside to keep the ball out of Rodgers hands - something Dallas & Co. ditched way too early.

The over at 60.5 is undoubtedly going to hit. Both the offenses will get theirs, but the Falcons seem more likely to get one or two more stops than Green Bay. Third downs will be key in this game - with Matt Ryan slightly more effective than Rodgers through the air, the Falcons need to keep Rodgers in the pocket and force him to throw.

As for the spread at -5.5, stretching to -6 at a certain point this week, is pretty large for a shootout with teams that are pretty equal in ability. The Falcons bias in me wants to believe they're going to cover, but the fiscally smart gambler in me thinks Green Bay covers.

And finally to predict who wins, I actually have no idea who wins. The Falcons offense is better and the defense has played better, but Atlanta has seen the Aaron Rodgers Buzz Saw Tour tear through the Georgia Dome. If the defense steps up, Atlanta wins. If Green Bay gets comfortable on offense, they should win. After jumping out to an early lead, the Packers showed vulnerability in the second half - the Falcons need to avoid trailing in the first and keep the offense unforced, but fluid.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-6), o/u 50.5

This is the matchup that everyone has talked about with all of the media attention and bulletin board material being sent back and forth between the players. It started with Antonio Brown's Facebook Live catching Tomlin calling the Patriots ass-holes and continued with Big Ben and Edelman telling each other to count each other's trophies.

This will be all out brawl in Foxboro, both teams didn't play their best in the divisional round - the Steelers didn't get a touchdown and the Patriots turned the ball over three times. Both teams faced respectable defenses, but both teams are eager to get out and play better than they did previously.

The Patriots have done it with their offense masking their defense's weaknesses this season. This has not been a trademark Pats D, but they find a way to force turnovers when they need them most. It is slightly concerning that Brock Osweiler played as well as he did against the Pats, and had it not been for some dropped passes in the end zone that took all the air out of any momentum for the Texans, this game could have gone a completely different route. Tom Brady and company know they didn't play well, as he had as many interceptions in the game as he had all season, and they'll look to fix their mistakes. They have a bevy of targets in the receiving corp (Edelman, Amendola, Floyd, Hogan, and rookie Malcolm Mitchell), targets out of the backfield in Dion Lewis and James White, a bruiser up the middle with Blount, and a now reliable tight end in Martellus Bennett.

The Steelers defense is better than most people have given them credit this season, near the top of the league in red zone efficiency. If they can pressure Brady as much as the Texans did then the Steelers stand a good chance of stealing a win in New England.

While the Brady Bunch gets ready for the Steelers defense, the Killer Bs in Pittsburgh look to continue their dominance with the football. Leveon Bell is unlike most running backs we've ever seen with his ability to slip and slide in and out of holes at the line of scrimmage, rushing for over 120 yards in both playoff games. Bottling him up from making the big run will be the focus for the Patriots, because they are confident in their defensive backs to know where Antonio Brown is at all times. Keeping Brown in check forces Big Ben to find other targets, which can certainly hurt you but it won't kill you.

The Patriots always win because they find ways to get make up for points in all aspects of the game if one aspect of their game struggles. When the offense wasn't effective, the special teams put points on the board and the defense forced turnovers to put the offense in better position. When the defense struggles, the offense gears up for a shootout with the leagues clutchest quarterback.

The Steelers have been one of the hottest teams in all of football, but their inability to put the ball in the end zone from striking distance is worrisome. The game plan to stop Pittsburgh is more clear than the one to stopping the Patriots - if you can contain one or two of the Killer B's, the others struggle. Lining up correctly to prevent the Steelers from mismatches is how you manage them, which is something the Patriots are well prepared for.

For these reasons, I'm picking the Patriots to win while the Steelers cover. And as for the 50.5 o/u, I'm hammering the over because I think an unexpected shootout could take place. The weather will not be preventative of one, and both quarterbacks are too good with too many weapons to both be held under 25 points.